Allawi's political career in ruins?

This latest electoral prediction just in from Baghdad...

The UIA will win 120 seats, they are way out in front, with the sunni's and kurds battling for second. heres the juice though... Allawi is way back in 4th or 5th. if this turns out to be true then id say that, short of attempting a coup, his hopes of running Iraq are over forever.

News coming from Iraq yesterday says that Dr laith kubba, Ibrahim al-Jafari's spokesman, had offered his resignation in order to run for parliament and for there to be no clash of interst with the UIA. but Syed Jafari refused, saying that Kubba Could continue serving the government. Dr Kubba had wanted to run on the UIA list but would've been too far down the list to have stood a chance. so he started his own list which will probably be invited back into any governing co-alition.

Ahmed Chalabi will also apparently come back to the alliance if he gets a seat... he seems to have drawn votes away from Allawi, namely secular middle-class iraqis, and i wonder if this was a deliberate ploy.